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Applied AI·May 31, 2026·1 min read

Apollo's chief economist says he sees 'zero evidence' of AI-related job losses, even as CEOs cite the tech in layoffs

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If macro data shows 'zero evidence' of AI-driven job losses while CEOs cite AI in layoff memos, you're looking at narrative arbitrage — cost-cutting and restructuring are being rebranded as AI strategy. Separate real automation impact from HR theater before you set your own workforce and capex plans.

Applied AI

AI adoption follows the J-curve path of general-purpose tech, like early US factory electrification, requiring years of investment before noticeable ROI gains (Exponential View)

If AI follows the electrification J-curve, your P&L will look worse before it looks better — the real returns show up only after you re-architect workflows, org design, and data plumbing, not after a few pilots. Treat 2026–2028 as infrastructure and process rewiring years, not as the period where AI line items must already be margin accretive.